Monday, January 9, 2012

Very Inconsistent Models and Berried in Snow

Before I get to the inconsistent models I want to talk about were the snow has been.
So far this winter the whole nation has had very little snow. Well now it appears now that we have found where it has been...
The answer is...Alaska! yep Alaska just look at these photos by a member of the pacific northwest weather group in Cordova Alaska.
The town is literally Berried! Cordova's average yearly snowfall is 127 inches but so far this year over 216 inches (18 feet) has fallen and it has not stopped snowing for over 24 days in a row! The town has declared a state of emergency and the Alaskan coast guard is helping them clear the snow.  
Here is another image of a ski lift on Mt. Eyak near the town.
Yes that little thing poking out is the chair lift!
and just one more photo to show how much snow there is
Now back to our weather...
Long term:
Models are still being very in consistent starting around Sunday night, however the European model (witch is one of the more reliable models) is showing a trend to colder weather.
The image below shows the 12z euro ensembles(separate models that support)
Note: for snow the 850 mb temp must be -8c or lower.
In the image notice how many of the ensembles take the 850 mb temp down to -8--10c. Meanwhile the GFS has 850mb temps at 0-5c at the same time.
My Forecast:
Timberline Forecast:
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 30. Northwest wind between 3 and 11 mph. 

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 24. East wind between 6 and 11 mph. 

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 33. East wind between 3 and 10 mph. 

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 22. Light southeast wind. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 34. 

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. 

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 34. 

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. 

Saturday: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. 
Thanks for reading 
-Michael


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