Colder Weather Pattern with a Possibility of Snow?

For the past few weeks we have been in a relatively warm and quiet weather pattern. Starting next week end a cold trough from the north will drop down and bring us cold air.

Now models are still disagreeing on exactly how cold the air will be but most are in agreement that it will be between -6 to -8c at 850mb (5000ft) over our area. now in the middle of winter -8c at 850mb will give you snow however during this time of year we would need about -9c to produce snow with an onshore flow.

2 Problems for snow:

1. Onshore flow: 

The image below explains how onshore flow is a problem for snow.

2. Its the end of February:

At the end of February the sun angle is higher which gives us warmer temperatures. 

Bottom line:

• Snow level will be most likely be around 1000ft.
• Best chance of brief accumulation at the valley floor would be Sunday morning.
• Any accumulation would be spotty and brief. 
• this is one week away and it could change.

My forecast:

Thanks for reading 

-Michael