Saturday, February 25, 2012

A Snowy Update

I'm sure most if not all have already seen some snow mixing in with rain today but its not over yet.

Info on snow:
  • Everyone will see snowflakes.
  • Best chance for snow will be tonight and Sunday morning
  • Spotty accumulations of a trace to1 inch
  • Accumulating snow will mostly stay above 500ft
  • Daytime highs 40-45
  • Sun breaks will melt any accumulated snow below 1000ft
  • Sunday evening moisture dissipates and leaves us dry
  • Monday will be cool and dry
Tuesday:
Now Tuesday morning models are not all in agreement on the position of a low but if that low does come far enough south then we would get an offshore flow which would give us a snow to rain transition.
The image below is the 12z WRF-GFS on Tuesday morning
Notice how the wind barbs circled in red are pointed offshore that indicated wind blowing from the east.
The image below is an explanation of the setup that we will have.
Now is this does setup right we could get 1-2inches of snow then rain. But if the low tracks farther north then we will get south winds and rain.
My forecast:

Thanks for reading
-Michael 


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