However winter has decided to attempt to visit us one last time.
Saturday-Monday (18th-20th):
A trough of low pressure will arrive over our area and allow some cold air to seep into our region (shown below). Now this cold air will lower the 850 mb (5,000ft) temps down to about -6c which means the snow levels will be 1,000 ft to 1,500ft. Now the snow levels being up there does not rule out the chance of a rain/snow mix down to almost sea level in the heavier showers.
The image below is the 18z GFS ensembles showing the trough over our area on Saturday.
Tuesday-Thursday(21st-23rd):
A ridge of high pressure will build just to the west of us and give us drippy conditions.
The image below shows the 12z WRF-GFS showing the setup.
Notice how the high pressure gives us an onshore flow. Now what does an onshore flow do? Well it usually gives us lots of low clouds, fog, or drizzle. This is also known as a "Dirty Ridge"
Saturday+ (25th+):
Models are now starting to agree on that a trough of low pressure will drop down over us and drop snow levels down to 500-1500ft. However how low the snow level goes will depend on where the upper level high will be located.
The image below is the 12z Euro ensembles showing the trough bringing cold air to our region.
My forecast:
Timberline Forecast via NWS:
Friday: Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 34. Southwest wind between 17 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Friday Night: Snow showers. Low around 19. Breezy, with a west southwest wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Saturday: Snow showers. High near 21. Wind chill values as low as zero. Windy, with a west wind between 26 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
Saturday Night: Snow showers. Low around 16. Breezy, with a west wind between 20 and 28 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Sunday: Snow likely, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Sunday Night: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Washington's Birthday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30.
Monday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.
Friday Night: Snow showers. Low around 19. Breezy, with a west southwest wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Saturday: Snow showers. High near 21. Wind chill values as low as zero. Windy, with a west wind between 26 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
Saturday Night: Snow showers. Low around 16. Breezy, with a west wind between 20 and 28 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Sunday: Snow likely, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Sunday Night: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Washington's Birthday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30.
Monday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.
Thanks for reading
-Michael
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