Monday, February 6, 2012

Micro-climates and a Small Pattern Change

This weekend was just gorgeous! Some locations have even received their first 60 degree day on Sunday.
   Now what has been causing this beautiful weather? This is being caused by a big upper level high sitting just to the east of us driving all the weather systems around us.
The image below shows the upper level high making the storm track bend around and over our region. 
I'm pretty sure all of you have felt that east wind out there. The east wind is being caused by low level high being bottled up against the cascades in the Hood River Valley. Winds gusted at crown point up to 77 mph on Friday and are still gusting up to 70 mph today(Monday). However Pressure gradients are still slowly climbing creating some very strong wind ( gusts 50-60) near the gorge.
Micro-climates:
Now this east wind is causing micro-climates, and a very noticeable one is in the Battle Ground/Hockinson area.
To show you this micro-climate, this image shows the temperatures at 12:00 am Monday.
  Notice how the temps outside the red circle are considerably warmer by about 17 degrees in places.
Now What causes this Micro-climate? This is caused my Larch Mt. and Silver Star Mt. Blocking the east wind. You can really well see how the wind is blocked on this WRF-GFS run
Pattern change:
Models are now mostly agreeing on a small pattern change starting tomorrow night due to the upper level high deteriorating. now this pattern change will be more wet than it has been but not a complete washout.  
My forecast:

Timberline Forecast:
Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 34. South southeast wind between 13 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. 

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. South wind 8 to 10 mph becoming west. 

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 35. West wind between 8 and 10 mph. 

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. West wind between 3 and 10 mph. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. 

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. 

Friday: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. 

Friday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. 
Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34.  

Thanks for reading
-Michael

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