Interesting Model Runs and a Dry Weekend .

I have not posted for awhile now due to a vacation I took, anyways moving on...
Before I talk about the short term I want the talk about the long term.

Models runs in the long range are being very inconsistent  however there is a trend toward more cool weather

let me show you what I mean by inconsistent...

This image is of the last 4 GFS model runs, now pay attention to the 850mb (5,000ft) circled in red.

Notice how the 12z  got rid of the arctic air then the next run brings it back.

Now for us to get snow the 850 mb temp has to be -8c or lower.

Also the ensembles (separate model runs) are not totally agreeing with the model

Here is a look at the ensembles.

Notice how the operational run is one of the runs that stick out .

bottom line is that the arctic air is still up for debate .

Short term:

After today's system a ridge of high pressure will develop and give us dry weather for the weekend. Then on Monday a shortwave will come through giving us rain. Then on Tuesday a big ridge of high pressure will build over our area (indicated in red in the image below) giving us dry weather till next Saturday.

Forecast: I'm trying a new graphic

Timberline Forecast:

Tonight: Snow. Low around 25. West wind around 15 mph becoming south. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. 

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 32. West northwest wind around 8 mph. 

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. West northwest wind between 6 and 8 mph. 

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 38. West wind around 7 mph. 

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. 

Monday: A slight chance of rain. Snow level 6900 feet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. 

Thanks for reading 

-Michael