Outlook on Snow.

As many of you have heard this weekend we might end up having snow, here are my thoughts on this...

First off very often when we have chances of snow we end up being too dry for snow this time however this time there will be plenty of moisture but not much cold air. Let me explain, for snow down here at the valley floor we need the 850mb (5,000ft) temp to be -8c or lower, so lets take a look at what the models say.

All the models agree on the 850mb temp on being -7 to -9c (very borderline for snow).

Now here's the problem, during this period there will be a slight south to north pressure gradient giving us a light southwest wind. Now whats the problem with southwest wind? The problem is the southwest wind is a warm wind and has killed many snow chances in the past.and this time they will probably give us rain/snow mix or very wet snow. 

Where and how much will it snow?

Sunday-Monday

Lets go by elevation.(keep in mind this could change)

1500ft+:6-12 inches 

500-1500:1-4 inches

Valley floor: trace-1 inch 

Now there is great news for ski resorts that are suffering from lack of snow.

The image below is a forecast of 24 hour snowfall ending on Wednesday afternoon.

Over 30 inches (3 feet of snow!) in the cascades! that will put ski resorts back into business.

My forecast:

Timberline Forecast:

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 32. Wind chill values as low as -16. East southeast wind around 14 mph. 

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 7. Wind chill values as low as -4. South southeast wind between 6 and 10 mph. 

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 38. Calm wind. 

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 10. South southwest wind around 6 mph. 

Saturday: Rain showers likely, mainly after 4pm. Snow level 6300 feet lowering to 5200 feet. Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all snow after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. 

Sunday: Snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 12. 

Sunday Night: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 2. 

M.L.King Day: Snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 17. 

Monday Night: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 4. 

Thanks for reading

-Michael