Icy roads and Possibility of Snow.

In my previous post I was talking about the wind in the gorge...well the numbers are in. At crown point (vista house) the official peak wind gust was 78 mph but a member of the Oregon AMS recorded a Gust of 87.1 mph!

Moving on: This morning some locations had very heavy frost due to freezing fog like in the picture below which was taken in the Hillboro area.

Yes, that is frost not snow!

later on this evening a week front came through and brought freezing drizzle to many locations and temperatures will remain near freezing overnight so watch out for ice in the morning.

Sunday, Monday and Tuesday are going to be dry but on Wednesday night and Thursday morning a low pressure system will slide down the coast to the west of us. Now why is this interesting? this interesting because it is in a similar position that usually gives us snow. now the only problem is that models are showing that the east winds from the low will be washed out by south winds fast enough for it not to snow.

However model resolution is not high enough to take account of the gorge.

Here is the 00z GFS showing the low to the southwest of us.

Here is a check list for snow for this setup

Cold east winds - Uncertain  

850 mb temps at -8c or lower- No

Moisture- Yes 

The low is centered to the southwest of us- Yes

Bottom line is that this is very uncertain and depends on if the easterly flow will be washed out to soon. but if it will snow totals would be around 2 -3 inches.

Beyond that is appears that the high pressure ridge along with a cut-off  is back giving us more dry weather.

Here is the 00z GFS-WRF showing the setup that will give us more dry weather.

For skiers and snowboarders:

Timberline forecast:

Sunday: A slight chance of drizzle and flurries before 10am, then a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Northwest wind between 6 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. 

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. East northeast wind between 5 and 8 mph. 

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 28. East wind around 10 mph. 

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. East wind around 7 mph becoming southwest. 

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of snow after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. 

Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Little or no snow accumulation expected. 

Wednesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. 

Thanks for reading and feel free to comment

-Michael