Arctic Blast Not Looking so Good.

In my previous post I said how models were hinting at cold arctic air coming down into our area. Well now models have done a complete flip flop sending the arctic air into eastern Montana.

Here is an example of how models flipped 

Here is the 12z GFS-WRF from Wednesday 

  This shows arctic air right over the Portland area 

Now here is yesterdays 00z GFS-WRF 

It shows the arctic air far to our northeast 

Now here is today's  00z GFS-WRF  

arctic air is a little closer but still not close enough

What is the reason for it not being close enough? The reason for this is a strong westerly jet is causing a small upper level low north of Hawaii to go farther west and not allowing the upper level high to move east.

bottom line is an arctic blast is not looking likely but just cooler temps and dry conditions will occur.

here is text output of the 00z GFS

Very dry all the way till the 15th 

For skiers and snowboarders:

Timberline forecast:

 Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 35. East northeast wind between 7 and 9 mph. 

Saturday Night: Clear, with a low around 21. North northwest wind between 6 and 8 mph. 

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 29. Northeast wind around 11 mph. 

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 21. Calm wind.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 34. 

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 26. 

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 37. 

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 26. 

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 33.