Strong Winds and Flooding!

The strongest storm is the season is barreling down our coast and a wind advisory has been posted for the valley due to a strong surface low that is going to pass by Vancouver  Island

The picture below is the GFS-WRF model showing wind gusts

Gusts in the valley are near 50 knots (57mph)! 

Along with the wind there is also concerns for flooding as the strong pacific jet is bringing an atmospheric river at us. You can see it clearly in this satellite image below.

The reason for flooding concerns is that there is a narrow band of moisture with very heavy rain that will stall somewhere in Oregon or Washington.

 The image below is a 1 forecast hour rain fall total.

As you can see this rain band is very thin but it has rain rates between ..64"-1.28" per hour and this rain band is supposed to stall somewhere between central Washington and northwest Oregon . But models are having trouble deciding were this rain band will stall. Here is what I mean

Yesterdays model:

It shows the band stalling in northwest Oregon and hitting PDX.

Today's model:

 It shows the band stalling in central Washington and hitting SEA. 

So bottom line is that;

• There will be strong winds (gusts from 45-50 mph) late tonight till tomorrow evening 
• Flooding depends on where the rain band stalls 

For Skiers and Snowboarders:

 Tonight: Snow. Low around 25. Windy, with a southwest wind between 30 and 34 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. 

Tuesday: Snow before 10am, then rain between 10am and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. High near 34. Windy, with a southwest wind 40 to 45 mph increasing to between 55 and 60 mph. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. 

Tuesday Night: Snow before 10pm, then rain and snow. Low around 25. Windy, with a southwest wind between 39 and 44 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. 

Wednesday: Snow. High near 34. Windy, with a west southwest wind 35 to 38 mph decreasing to between 25 and 28 mph. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. 

Wednesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy and breezy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. 

Thanksgiving Day: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 25. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. 

Thanks for reading!

-Michael