Our Snow Chances.

After Thursdays front we will have some of the coldest air so far this season arrive. Now the Question is will we have snow? First of all lets talk about the main ingredients for snow.

• First we need cold air which is colder than -8c at 850mb (5,000ft).
• Second we need moisture .
• Thirdly we cannot have warm south winds.
• Lastly if there is an east wind you only need around -6c 850mb temps.

Friday morning:

On Friday morning the 850mb temps are around -6c, which is just to warm for snow in the valley. So most likely snow levels will be around 500ft-1000ft with rain/snow mix down in the valley.

Saturday:

Now this is where things get interesting. 850 temps will be around -7 with an east wind however one thing models are disagreeing on is moisture.

The picture below is the 18Z GFS 

  

It looks good for some snow, the low is not far offshore  giving us east winds, along with moisture coming around the low.

However here is the 12Z euro model

The low is farther offshore and much weaker with no moisture coming up to us.

So bottom line is it all depends on how far off shore the low will go and how strong it will be.

For skiers/snowboarders:

Timberline forecast:

Tonight: A 40 percent chance of snow after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 27. West wind between 8 and 14 mph. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow before 4pm, then rain and snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Windy, with a west southwest wind 21 to 24 mph increasing to between 40 and 43 mph. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10pm. Low around 26. Windy, with a west southwest wind between 41 and 46 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Thursday: Snow showers. High near 27. Windy, with a west wind between 31 and 41 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Thursday Night: Snow showers. Low around 16. Breezy, with a west wind between 22 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.